We have two intense conflicts consuming the news. The Iranian conflict has unfortunately taken the fight in the Ukraine off the screen. Many would have thought that the Iran conflict would be over quickly, but knowing the Iranians very well, this would never be the case. As the Deputy J5 at then CENTCOM HQ MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, from 2016-18, our team would brief the CENTCOM Commander (CENTCOM is commanding the war against Iran) once a month on Iran (our worst security problem in the Middle East), and we would update him on the many plans we had to attack Iran. One of the stand out points for me included the many dire consequences of attacking Iran: closure of the Straits of Hormuz, key Iranian leadership if taken out would be replaced by the leadership of the IRGC who are so many and more fanatical, and that it would take years to defeat Iran because of how resilient they are and how well they fight from the mountains, and finally the worst option would be to put boots on the ground. If Trump wants to seriously declare success, this war will last a long time, and the global effects will continue to be more impactful around the world. Our eye is sadly off the Ukraine and China is quietly watching as the US spends more money it doesn’t have as they continue to diminish their military weapons and ammunition. Trump, like Putin, thinks a war will keep him in power.
We had an excellent speaker last month with George Takach from Toronto who spoke to us about Taiwan. Without the use of his slide deck, he drew maps of Taiwan and the region and gave us an excellent rundown on the history, economic capabilities, and Taiwan’s ability to defend itself against China. George is talented and has authored several superbly researched geopolitical books and we would have preferred him to have won the Liberal Leadership race against Trudeau in 2013. By producing ninety percent of the world’s much needed semi-conductor microchips, Taiwan has effectively monopolized the industry. Taiwanese chips are needed for our defence industry and just about everything that we own nowadays. Currently the Taiwanese have a democratic party leading the country and, with elections taking place in 2028, George believes that if they win again against the KMT Communist Party, China will attack the island. The US and many other countries around the world believe that China could even attack earlier in 2027. Today’s conflict in the Middle East is a huge factor.
On 16 April Bryan and I will give a presentation on our takeaways from the Conference of Defence Association Ottawa Conference that took place in early March of this year. We have a few slides, and it will enable us to have a discussion about Canada’s Road to 5 per cent which was the theme for the conference. We will likely set up the brief right at the main bar in the Keg Room.
Next month, 21 May, we have Vice Admiral Topshee joining us for a combined RKUSI/RCMI gathering to provide a presentation on the plans for the Navy. He also plans to speak about his recruiting plans as the navy prepares to increase its fleet over the coming years.
Hoping to see many of you next Thursday evening in a relaxed format to discuss Canada’s Road to 5%.