The Torch
Illuminating Security and Defence Issues
Great Power Competition
Flamingos even things up a bit for Ukraine
13 October 2025
Last February, U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance launched a televised frontal attack on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House, telling him Ukraine had “no cards.” Zelensky should let Russia keep the conquered territories (about 20 per cent of Ukraine) in return for peace. Yet ...
The US Badly Needs Rare Minerals and Fresh Water. Guess Who Has Them?
13 October 2025
As China tightens its grip on critical resources, Trump eyes Canada’s riches
China launches a controversial shipping route across the melting Arctic
13 October 2025
This sea route has been dismissed as too treacherous. China’s taking the risk.
Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence
5 September 2025
The U.S. defense strategy and posture have become insolvent. The tasks that the nation expects its military forces and other elements of national power to do internationally exceed the means that are available to accomplish those tasks. Sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States and its allies are necessary to deter and defeat modern threats, including Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and reconstituted forces and China's economic takeoff and concomitant military modernization. This report offers ideas on how to address shortcomings in defense preparations.
The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe’s Critical Infrastructure
5 September 2025
This IISS paper assesses Russia’s unconventional war on Europe, focusing on sabotage of critical infrastructure, from military sites and energy grids to communications and undersea cables, testing the resilience of European governments and societies and challenging NATO/EU deterrence.
The Rising Military Threat of China’s S&T and Innovation Programs
5 September 2025
Chinese President Xi Jinping is committed to making the People’s Republic of China (PRC) a global scientific and innovation leader by 2035. During a recent speech, Xi declared that “when our science and technology flourishes, our race flourishes, and when science and technology is strong, our nation is strong.” This strategic belief is reflected in China’s increasing investment in scientific development as its main path to surpass the West militarily.
German Marshall Fund of the United States
Sabre-Rattling in the Baltic Sea
5 September 2025
Moscow is using kinetic and informational tactics to intimidate the West as it steps up measures to limit threats posed by Russia’s “shadow fleet”. GMF’s Larissa Doroshenko, Sophie Arts, and Jana Ondraskova argue that the EU and NATO allies must act decisively to maintain European security and a credible deterrence posture.
European Council on Foreign Relations
The bear beneath the ice: Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic
27 July 2025 -
The Kremlin’s Arctic ambitions have grown further this year, partly in response to signals from Washington. US president Donald Trump’s sights on Greenland were interpreted in Moscow as a sign of growing geopolitical competition in the region. America’s position validated the long-held idea that the Arctic is “the next frontier for great power competition”, reinforcing Russia’s self-perception as a key player on the world stage.
Institute for the Study of War
THE STRENGTHENING CHINA-RUSSIA NEXUS
27 July 2025 -
The Sino-Russian relationship is closer and more interconnected in 2025 than it has ever been. The cooperation between Beijing and Moscow is a nexus—their relationship is a flexible and strategic knot of interconnections across the military, technological, economic, and political domains, and is not bounded by the structural rigidity of a formal defensive alliance. This Sino-Russian nexus has solidified against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.
The Limits of Putin’s Ambitions
27 July 2025 -
Putin’s war in Ukraine is not just about territory—it’s a calculated move rooted in history to reclaim Russia's global influence and potentially redraw Europe’s borders. To safeguard European security, the West needs to revive its proven strategy: build a strong deterrent while pursuing dialogue to ensure long-term stability.
US moves decisively to avoid dependence on China’s rare earths
27 July 2025 -
The Pentagon’s package of support for rare earths company MP Minerals, announced on 10 July, should free the US military and eventually much of US industry from dependence on Chinese supply chains for rare earth magnets.
The National Security Costs of Trump’s Tariffs
27 July 2025 -
President Donald Trump has been wielding tariffs to confront a range of national security threats: fentanyl, illegal immigration, the trade deficit, steel, aluminum and other imports deemed threatening. But looking at the national security ledger, the costs of those tariffs are starting to become clearer than the benefits, especially for the U.S. defense industry, critical infrastructure, and relations with partners and allies.
Distributed Maritime Operations, Logistics, Industry, and American Strategy in Asia
10 June 2025 -
This analysis will examine the U.S. Navy’s operational concept, Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) against the U.S. strategy towards China. A U.S.-China conflict will involve a key air-naval element, meaning the way the U.S. Navy plans to fight has a distinct influence on strategy.
China’s geopolitical dominance game in the South China Sea
10 June 2025 -
For all the talk about the South China Sea’s complexity as a security issue, its geopolitical significance to China is simple: China wants to condition Southeast Asian states to subordinate status. Southeast Asian countries would do well to consider this when assessing Beijing’s motivations and behaviour.
Russian nuclear weapons, 2025
10 June 2025 -
Russia is in the late stages of a multi-decade-long modernization program to replace all of its Soviet-era nuclear-capable systems with newer versions. However, this program is facing significant challenges that will further delay the entry into force of these newer systems. In this issue of the Nuclear Notebook, we estimate that Russia now possesses approximately 4,309 nuclear warheads for its strategic and non-strategic nuclear forces.
War Room / U.S. Army War College
FROM HYPERSONICS TO ALLIANCES: RUSSIA’S EMERGING THREATS TO U.S. AND NATO SECURITY
20 May 2025
As the conflict in Ukraine continues into its fourth full year of full-scale war and with the entrance of a new U.S. presidential administration, the security environment for the United States vis-à-vis Russia has changed rapidly. Russian lessons learned, strategic innovations, and battlefield successes and failures have generated new challenges that will threaten U.S. national security in the near term.
Beyond Tariffs: What the U.S. Can Learn from China’s Industrial Playbook
20 May 2025
The Trump administration is attempting to spur an industrial revival in the United States by imposing tariffs on trading partners. China—a key target of U.S. tariffs—has experienced the largest industrial expansion in history, rising from poverty to become the top global manufacturer and exporter within a generation. Despite the unique nature of its political economy and the challenges it faces, China offers valuable lessons that could benefit the United States as Washington attempts to increase domestic manufacturing.
China’s ‘Three Warfares’ Strategy in Action: Implications for the Sino-India Boundary, the Arctic, and Antarctica
20 May 2025
China’s ‘three warfares’ strategy (TWS)—understood as public opinion, psychological, and legal warfare—has received considerable attention, but most analyses focus on Beijing’s sovereign claim to Taiwan and its maritime claims in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. This occasional paper evaluates the manifestation of the TWS against India in Ladakh and China’s motivation for adopting the same approach in the Arctic and Antarctica. The paper also highlights the application of the TWS in geographical areas that were previously neglected or inadequately addressed to further policymakers’ understanding and response to the approach.
Factors Shaping the Future of China’s Military
26 March 2025
China is experiencing rapid demographic change as young people are making up an ever-smaller share of the population. At the same time, China is seeking to modernize the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Trump Has Launched a Second American Revolution. This Time, It’s Against the World.
26 March 2025
In ten dramatic shifts, the president has declared independence from the global system that America made.